The nexus between global economics, politics, policy and markets
Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones recently welcomed J2Z Founder and Principal Jay Pelosky for another installment of Real Conversations. In this revealing excerpt from their interview, Pelosky expands on his thoughts from a recent piece he wrote entitled "The Big Fear."
Source: HEDGEYE
Nine months into the year and 2015 has already been a wild ride. As foreshadowed in the 2015 Outlook piece, it‟s been a year of tough choices, and that remains the case as the fourth quarter looms (see “2015 Outlook – Tough Choices Ahead,” published on December 2, 2014). Today the choice is whether or not to believe in the Big Fear, which suggests that investors are losing faith in policymakers‟ ability to influence the world‟s two largest economies: China and the US. And we all know what we do when we lose faith.
Source: FOX BUSINESS
Forbes Media Chairman Steve Forbes, Pelosky Global Strategies Principal’s Jay Pelosky and RBC Wealth Management Senior Vice President Reva Shakkottai on the U.S. economy, the Fed’s interest rate decision and the markets.
Source: FOX BUSINESS
Investors take note: there is a global battle taking shape between the forces of reflation and recession.
We're the Bi-Sectoralists. One from the private sector world of global finance and markets, one from the public sector world of foreign policy in Washington and academia. We're tired of the "you're the problem -- no, you are" finger pointing between the public and private sectors. Both are. Both sectors need to get their own acts together, and to work better together if we're going to have any chance of revitalizing domestically and competing globally.
Amid the recent noise about Greece default risk and China bubble trouble, a much larger and more important issue is taking shape: the growing likelihood of a global recession. Investors and policy makers alike have been focused on the reflation story driven by the developed market (DM) economies of Europe, Japan and the US growing together for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). However, the emergence of a sharp slowdown throughout the emerging market (EM) economies risks overwhelming that positive story. Recent price action in commodities, EM equities and DM sovereign bonds suggests a sea change might be in order.
Forbes Media Chairman Steve Forbes, Jay Pelosky and Brean Capital Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir discuss the impact of Greece’s debt problems on the world markets.
Source: Fox Business
Jay Pelosky, Former Fed Monetary Affairs Director Vince Reinhart, Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown, and Suntrust Private Wealth Management Director Andy Richman discuss how the Fed dots could move the markets.
Source: Fox Business
Jay Pelosky, Former Fed Monetary Affairs Director Vince Reinhart, Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown, and Suntrust Private Wealth Management Director Andy Richman discuss the Fed decision.
Source: Fox Business
Will Greece cut a deal? Jay Pelosky outlines 3 possible outcomes for the country.
Source: CNBC
Iran has been closed for about 35 years, so a recent visit was an unusual event. On the ground, Iran reminded one of earlier economic and market transitions such as Latin America at the turn of the 1990s or Russia and central Europe in the mid-1990s. Salient features include underutilised labour, a state-controlled economy, brain-drain and immature capital markets. However, Iran has some unique characteristics that suggest a nuclear deal could stimulate an accelerated transition.
I had the eye-opening experience of spending a week in Iran recently, and what a week it was. As an American, the gap between what passes for common knowledge about Iran and the on-the-ground reality seems as wide as a country closed for 35 years would suggest – HUGE. While I was in Iran, the S&P moved less than 1%, but there was lots of action in the currency and commodity space, and that has generated some fresh USD thoughts. Dollar first, then Iran.
Jay Pelosky and Bloomberg Intelligence's Carl Riccadonna discuss the outlook for U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar with Bloomberg's Alix Steel and Oliver Renick on "Street Smart."
Source: Bloomberg