ITAÚ: Summer Lulls, Slow Fuses and Positive Feedback Loops

The panicked reaction to the idea of Fed tapering that overwhelmed financial asset markets in the May- June period has given way to a period of calm and asset price retracement as we move into the dog days of summer. Investors should consider how much there is to play for and how long this lull might last. Beyond such considerations lies the question of what follows as fall approaches. Amidst the summer lull, there are several slow-burning fuses to be assessed as well as possible positive feedback loops to offset the risk of those fuses reaching the dynamite.

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ITAÚ: Cross the River by Feeling the Stones

Financial markets have been in the midst of a volatility storm since mid-May when Fed Chairman Bernanke noted the likely tapering of QE3. This chaos has upset a number of investment trends in place since QE3 was introduced last September. Also upset were investor confidence and portfolio performance, leaving confusion and uncertainty as the operative investor mindset.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: From Growth Compression to Reflation. The Road Ahead

Five years into the global socio-economic crisis, five basic points have become clear. First, the can-kicking approach to economic policymaking is not sustainable. Second, time is not our friend; delay leads to fewer, poorer policy choices, not more, better options. Third, the world needs growth, not endless austerity and deficit reduction. Fourth, monetary policy alone cannot generate growth. Fifth, as growth compresses and investment returns shrink, a policy pivot approaches. Next year may well see the Great Growth Compression begin to turn into the Great Global Reflation.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: Central Banks Have Made Their Moves. What's Next?

Is it possible that policy makers and investors have already enjoyed all the good news and rising prices they are going to get from recent Central Bank action? After all, every major macro issue of the past few months: ECB open ended bond buying (with conditions), ESM approval by the German Courts, Dutch elections, Fed going for unlimited QE3, even the Apple I phone 5 roll out, went about as well as one could hope. As a result, fear gave way to complacency and risk assets worldwide rose 10-15% off the May-June lows, with Spanish and Italian stocks rising 30% plus while their bond yields plummeted. Unlike in QE 1 and 2, when stocks fell hard in the months prior and then rallied on the news, maybe we have already had the party?

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: The Bisectoralists. Competing in a Global Era

When we started the Bisectoralists series, our thesis was that the public and private sectors as well as the major political parties had to work better together for America to succeed. To that end, we laid out five guiding principles to help the United States revitalize domestically and compete globally. Our first four -- "Strength from Within", "Policy and Markets", "Beyond Short Term-ism", "It's the Economy, Stupid II" -- were more domestic in focus than international. The fifth principle, recalibrating America's role for "competing in a global era," shifts this emphasis to the global stage. More actors, bigger problems, a greater need to work better together.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: The Rebirth of Middle America

For much of the past thirty years, Middle America has been fly-over country, both economically and physically. The Coasts, East with its financial boom and West with the tech revolution, dominated investor thinking and attracted investment dollars. Along the way the emerging economies boomed, further eroding the heartland's mind, market and wallet share.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: Bi-Sectoralism. It's the Economy Stupid II

Since we launched our "Bi-Sectoralism" series late last summer, the economy has remained a main focus. No surprise there. Our approach in making it the fourth of our five guiding principles has been to stress how all too often the public and private sectors fail to agree, indeed actively work against one another, to the detriment of both the jobs creation and debt reduction goals. We believe bi-sectoral cooperation is imperative if we are to improve our internal economic development as well as our place in the global economy.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: Bi-Sectoralism V. Beyond Short-Termism

We acknowledged when we began our Bi-Sectoralists column that it would be naïve to suggest that politicians and investors should never think short-term. But it's even more unrealistic to accept pervasive short-termism as a given when it is so antithetical to being strategic.

We feel strongly that our problems are structural and therefore require more strategic thinking and bi-sectoral partnership and less tactics. Many of the issues confronting the US and the world are not quickly solved; if they were then we would not be in the tough economic spot we are in three years after the Wall Street crash. Unfortunately, the history of debt deleveragings suggests we are only half way through the time line.

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THE HUGGINGTON POST: Policy and Markets. How, Not If

The policy vs markets debate makes for good rhetoric but lousy results. It's not if government should play a role in the economy. It's how best to do it.

The long slog of debt deleveraging (we're about halfway through) coupled with the rising risk of a global credit crunch implies the timing is right. From Erskine Bowles' CEO Fiscal Reform Council to the Occupy Wall St. movement, frustration is mounting. The need for market based, government supported, job creating policies is clear; what's missing is the will.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: The Globalization of Finance. The Tide Turns

The battle for the future of the global financial system has commenced. The two opposing forces: global liquidity and debt deleveraging, are on the battlefield. The supporting cast: QE3, ECB rate cuts, Chinese stimulus on the one side and EU credit crunch, US fiscal drag, Chinese political inertia on the other, are lined up. After months of skirmishing, the decisive battle appears to be at hand.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: Bi-Sectoralism III. Strength From Within

The outlook: for the U.S., the EU and the global economy is unclear. Political systems buckle under the challenge of domestic, regional or global governance. Consumers hunker down, corporates sit on cash, job creation is anemic, banks and sovereigns shrink. In this, our third column, we elaborate on the first of our five Bi-Sectoral Principles, Strength from within -- for while the U.S. does depend on others, much more important is what we do for ourselves.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: 2012 & the Global Search for Yield

While much has transpired in financial markets over the past quarter, much remains unclear about the road ahead. Bond yield melt down, equity trap door decline, financial repression, sovereign debt infection, all have become front-page news. Does this mean all is in the price and one can go bargain hunting? Not so fast remains the counsel, not so fast.

Three big risks remain. First, the shape and timing of the EU sovereign debt end game. Second, the effect of sharply lower OECD growth on US corporate earnings. Third, the rising risk of stagflation in the emerging economies.

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THE HUFFINGTON POST: Bi-Sectoralism. Ready, Set, ReSet

In our first column, we Bi-Sectoralists laid out five principles for the public and private sectors to improve internally & work better together for the public good. Better dialogue and better results are crucial if America is to be successful in its economic and political revitalization both at home and abroad. In today's column, we flesh these principles out and suggest ways to reset public-private interaction.

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